[00:00:02] This is Short Term Rental Management, the show that is all about short term rental property management with your host, yours truly, Luke Carl.
[00:00:16] Oh, my goodness, it is Short Term Rental Management. It's Luke Carl. And I am so happy to be here. It's been a very busy time. I am out of town. I'm in New Orleans right now.
[00:00:27] Virtual background. I believe that's maybe Julia street, give or take.
[00:00:33] I don't know. Could be hell. It could be the French Quarter for all I know. But I'm in New Orleans right now. I've been here for a while, having a great summer. What's left of the summer, anyways. I record this at the end of the summer and at least as far as my kids going back to school. And a whole lot's going on, including the one and only, the greatest of all time, Mr. Ozzy Osborne passed away. And of course, the Hulkster passed away in the same week.
[00:00:56] So say your prayers and take your vitamins because, you know, we're getting older. We are. We are getting older. And we have to be respectful of that and be graceful when it comes to enjoying the day.
[00:01:15] You know, I hate to say, but we're all just passing through. We are.
[00:01:19] And it's. It's been a bit of a sad week.
[00:01:23] Do we even have any heroes? I don't even know if I have any heroes after this.
[00:01:27] You know, after this, it's all influencers and social media folks, and I'm a little old to be into that kind of thing.
[00:01:35] For me, it'll always be the rock stars, and we're getting closer to losing more of them every day. But just another reminder as to why we need to buy more real estate, really. You know what I mean? And that's why I wanted to do this podcast from New Orleans. Not only because I'm here and I do love this city. I love it very much. It's a wonderful place. We've got our own. We've got our own little chunk of the world here in New Orleans and love coming to visit as much as we can. It'll be football season soon, so that'll start up and that'll be a stressful losing season again. But that's okay.
[00:02:06] And I just wanted to catch up. It's been a while.
[00:02:11] Been. Been on the road for a long time. I'll be back in my office probably next week, back to normal. And I know that everybody's having a crazy, wild summer, especially if you have kids.
[00:02:25] So, you know, it's sad.
[00:02:27] I worked for Ozzy for 14 years, something like that on his radio station. And it meant a lot to me and I don't do it anymore, but good memories and got to meet him and seen him several times. Saw him at Madison Square Garden, saw him with Black Sabbath twice. Introduced him to the stage at Oz Fest 2018, San Bernardino. Don't quote me on that year. I might have the year wrong, but.
[00:02:56] And of course, many memories with my dad. My dad was a rocker, a metalhead, if you will. And he got me into rock and roll and he's a big Black Sabbath fan. And my uncle, as a shop project in high school, built a casket and he based it off of the album cover from Sabbath, Bloody Sabbath.
[00:03:24] That's pretty metal. I don't think he has it anymore. By the way. That casket was his bed. He put a mattress in it and slept in it. We're talking about my uncle, Uncle Buddy. Shout out to him. That's metal.
[00:03:35] And so a lot of rock and roll in my life since day one.
[00:03:39] Avery's dad is also a big rock and roller. And of course Avery's a huge rock and roller. And we, my kids were supposed to see Ozzy at a concert in California two falls ago. And then he was not able to make it. He ended up canceling. He was on the bill.
[00:03:56] So it's just sad, you know, It's a sad day. And then of course, the Hulkster, another hero from many people from my generation's childhood. And.
[00:04:09] And here we are. So, you know, we're just all passing through. We're not here for a long time, really. And you got to make a difference while you're here. Provide vacations for folks to have a good time with their families.
[00:04:21] Nice place to raise their kids in a piece of rental real estate.
[00:04:26] Simple as that.
[00:04:27] I am doing a rehab right now. I've got a new little property on the beach in Walton County, Florida.
[00:04:34] Tiny little house is barely 900. I think it's right at 900 square feet, two bed, two bath, tiny, tiny, tiny. The living room has just enough room for a couch, basically already ripped it apart. Closed on it about a week ago, Two week close.
[00:04:52] And I'm doing it remotely. The house is right near where I live and I'm still doing a remote rehab because I'm not there.
[00:05:00] So no matter what I do, I'm rehabbing from a distance, even when the house is right next to where I live.
[00:05:06] I'm also on a different setup today, if you haven't noticed. I believe I mentioned, but different microphone, so I apologize. If it doesn't sound as good as usual. And different camera, different lighting, the whole thing. So making me look old today. And that's okay because we're getting older. We are. And I'm not afraid of it. You know, I still get up early and run every single day. 4 o' clock in the morning.
[00:05:29] People say, how can you do that? You're going to blow your knees out. And I'm like, man, my knees hurt way more when I'm sitting on the couch.
[00:05:37] Hydrate, hydrate, hydrate. That's the best advice I can give you in life. All right, let me give you two pieces of advice. Wake up earlier, drink more water.
[00:05:45] Somebody should write a book about that. Oh yeah, Miracle morning.
[00:05:50] Read that book.
[00:05:52] But yeah. So I'm doing this rehab and I'm going to talk more about it. I'll probably do an entire rehab show once I get back to my actual office as I'm just kind of ranting today. But I do have a point.
[00:06:05] The point is that we're not cool.
[00:06:07] We are not cool right now. Real estate is not cool. But let me get back to the rehab. That thing is going pretty well. I'm using a bunch of guys I've used before and one guy I have not used before. But he's great, he's doing great. He's sending pictures, he's communicating. I'm over communicating. That's what I do. I just, that's what I do. I over communicate.
[00:06:25] I'm sending picture after picture after picture and I'm sending, I'm asking him to send picture, picture, picture. And then I'm saying, can you change this one little tiny thing in the corner?
[00:06:34] Send me pictures of what the guy, the, the wi fi get guy did with the modem.
[00:06:39] Where did he put it? Where's the, the box outside, all that kind of stuff.
[00:06:45] Because with a vacation rental, you know, you do kind of want everything to be perfect. With a long term rental, it's a whole different thing. You walk into one of those and you kind of gotta, you know, let things go a little bit. Let it, you know, the perfection. Gotta let it go a little bit.
[00:06:59] But with a vacation rental and the reviews and people's expectations, that's where you can be perfect.
[00:07:07] And that's what I'm planning to do on this rehab. And it's very cute. It's green, doing a really cool color contrast on the interior with the walls and the countertops. Something a little classier and a little less beachy.
[00:07:22] Although the cabinets are going to be A slightly beachy color.
[00:07:26] Spent a lot of time researching what colors to put in there and things like that, which is kind of fun. And that's not something you really do with a long term rental. I just paint every single one of them the exact same color and I usually do that with short term as well.
[00:07:40] You know, everything needs to be systemized.
[00:07:44] This episode is brought to you by Short Term Shop Plus.
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[email protected] that's stsplus.com But I did want to. Yeah, I wanted to talk about the fact that we're not popular right now. We are not popular. Avery spoke recently at the STR wealth conference. Bill Faith in Nashville.
[00:08:41] As of right now, that is the last short term rental conference in existence.
[00:08:49] There may not be another one.
[00:08:52] Bill says he's not going to be doing another one. From what I understand, Rob's not doing one.
[00:08:56] We've never had plans to do one.
[00:08:59] We do enjoy going to them from time to time, of course, but it's not really our thing. We're busy and we do other things elsewhere.
[00:09:12] Oh, by the way, the rehab on my. My new little beach house. I'm documenting that on Short Term Shop plus as well. So feel free to check that out in the community section.
[00:09:27] And I'll say, I'll never say never on doing a conference.
[00:09:30] I was in the party business for many, many years on my own bar in Manhattan and I was very good at throwing parties. And that's what a conference is, to be honest with you. Let's be real. When you're at a conference, look around, these people are partying, they are drinking and possibly looking to have, you know, close encounters with people of the opposite sex.
[00:09:56] It's really what there's going on there at those conferences.
[00:10:00] But I've gotten to the point in my life where I can't even begin to think about having time for such a thing with these children and camps and school and sports, etc. Raising kids, that's all I care about right now.
[00:10:17] So anyway, real estate is just not cool.
[00:10:22] Not cool.
[00:10:24] This is the slowest real estate market in history and I say that and then you sit there and you think to yourself, well, not where I live. Where I live, everything's still going well. My Sally next door sold her house for $75,000 more than what I thought my house was worth.
[00:10:41] Of course, my house is worth so much money. I'm a brilliant genius and I bought a house pre Covid I'm a genius.
[00:10:48] That's what's going on out there. The keeping up with the Joneses is a problem because the Joneses sold their property in 2022, cashed in, and now we can't do that anymore. And the interest rates are through the roof compared to what they were anyway when the Joneses bought their house.
[00:11:08] So really the biggest problem is perception.
[00:11:12] Until the Joneses or the Smiths, I should say, and until the Smiths next door to the Joneses realize that their house is not worth a big giant brick of gold, then nothing's going to change. And it is getting to the point where when you turn on the news, it is nothing but interest rates, interest rates, interest rates, Epstein, Epstein, interest rates, interest rates, Epstein.
[00:11:43] But make no mistake, those people on the news are not really talking about mortgages and interest rates. And the Fed rate is not really what they're talking about. When it comes to what we're talking about when it comes to mortgage interest rates, it's a whole different thing. Matter of fact, the Fed could go down tomorrow, which I don't think it will.
[00:12:02] It may have gone down already by the time you hear this. I have no idea when this podcast is coming out. The July meeting is in a couple of days as of the recording of this podcast. And I would imagine it's. They're not going down. That's my guess.
[00:12:14] I could be wrong.
[00:12:17] The Fed could go down tomorrow and interest rates could not change.
[00:12:24] So they're not exactly directly related. We're more concerned with the 10 year yield.
[00:12:30] What's the 10 year market look like?
[00:12:32] That is what's going to more so depict your mortgage interest rates. The picture, right?
[00:12:44] But nobody's buying real estate because all they see in the news is interest rates, interest rates, interest rates. And let's be real, most people buying real estate are selling real estate, are going to buy real estate.
[00:12:59] Almost everybody that sells a house is going to buy a house is 90% of Americans that sell a house are going to buy a house because they're selling it, because they were living in it and they want something different. And they're not doing that right now because they would have to go From a low interest rate to a high interest rate or they bought at a super high interest rate and they're trying to make a move up into something else. And that house is. It's going to cost them a ton of money to go up to move up in in house. So all you can do now is a lateral or smaller move. And most people don't want to do that. So they're not selling for many reasons. They're not selling.
[00:13:36] So we're just not cool. People are talking crap constantly about face on Facebook and the Internet and the news about real estate. Real estate is garbage.
[00:13:48] Why would I buy real estate? Rental real estate is dead and buried, to be honest with you. Those kind of comments are good for us as buyers, not great for sellers.
[00:14:04] As much as Warren Buffett preaches it and everybody in real estate talks about it. Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy. Nobody listens to this quote.
[00:14:18] Nobody, nobody.
[00:14:21] Nobody listens. People are sheep, period.
[00:14:33] People are going to do what other people do. There are very, very few natural leaders in this world.
[00:14:44] And even people that are put in a situation of leadership, a lot of times they blow it or they're just doing what they're told by an actual leader.
[00:14:57] Perfect example. I've talked about this before. I'm going to go back to the parking lot thing.
[00:15:02] If you listen to my show and maybe it's your first time, I'm not going to assume I park in the middle of nowhere in the parking lot. I do not want anybody parking anywhere near my car.
[00:15:17] It is such a pet peeve of mine. I hate it.
[00:15:22] I try to be full of joy and happiness in this world because again, as Ozzy and the Hulkster are proving, we're only here for a short time.
[00:15:30] We got small amount of time to make a difference in our lives and our families and our experiences and our travels. That's it? That's all you got?
[00:15:40] All you got is your health. That's it.
[00:15:43] And someday you're gonna need a new hip. And someday, you know, God forbid, like Ozzy, he got Parkinson's and the whole thing, man, it's just so sad.
[00:15:54] But there is one thing that I hate and it's people parking next to me.
[00:15:58] I hate it.
[00:16:01] But I cannot tell you how many times it happened to me. This week I took my kids to camp.
[00:16:06] They. And then I went down the road to a parking area because they were only at camp for a small amount of time and I didn't want to drive all the way back to the house. So I found a parking lot, and I worked for my car.
[00:16:18] Summertime with kids.
[00:16:21] I was literally. I didn't even get out of the car. I was parked so far from the building, it was a shopping mall.
[00:16:30] Nobody would park where I'm parked unless the rest of the parking lot was full. And at the time, the place wasn't even open yet. It was totally empty. I sat there no more than 10 minutes. Somebody pulled in right next to me.
[00:16:47] I'm telling you that there were 75 empty parking spots all around me.
[00:16:56] And the one car that came in before this establishment was even open parked right next to me.
[00:17:03] Why? Because somebody had been there to do it. First I was a leader, and the other guy was a sheep.
[00:17:13] People are sheep.
[00:17:15] You can't say sheeps, right?
[00:17:18] I believe sheep is the plural, but I'm not positive.
[00:17:24] So now we're getting these people posting on Facebook. Oh, real estate is so stupid. Why would you buy real estate?
[00:17:33] It's not cool.
[00:17:36] We don't have leaders.
[00:17:39] All the leaders have gone elsewhere.
[00:17:43] But I'm still here.
[00:17:46] I bought two vacation rentals this year.
[00:17:49] I haven't done that in 10 years, which doesn't sound like much, but vacation houses are expensive. At least the way I do it. In each one of these things was well over a half a million dollars.
[00:18:04] It's no chump change for anybody.
[00:18:10] So these guys yakking it up on the Internet, Facebook, bye, bye, bye, bye. Real estate is stupid. This is such a dumb investment. Why would you do this? You're gonna lose money to that guy. I say, thank you.
[00:18:27] I got all my best deals ever.
[00:18:32] When that same guy was saying that same on the same Internet.
[00:18:40] So it's going to take a while.
[00:18:42] It's going to take a while before real estate's cool again. But it will happen.
[00:18:48] And you got to be careful, because if you wait too long and it's super cool, super hip, everybody wants in, that's a bad time to buy.
[00:19:00] Be fearful when others are greedy.
[00:19:06] This is from the man with the most financial success on the planet, which, by the way, I lived right down the street from him when I was in college, University of Nebraska at Omaha, Warren Buffett in the Dundee area drove by his house almost every day.
[00:19:28] Very cool house. Not anything crazy, but it was cool. Super cool old house.
[00:19:37] So not only are we not cool, but crypto has taken off.
[00:19:45] It is flying high.
[00:19:49] It is out there in the stratosphere.
[00:19:53] And now you got all these people that are talking crap about real estate on Facebook, thinking They're brilliant geniuses going into this crypto stuff because it's all over the news and it's hot, hot, hot. It's hot.
[00:20:08] When you're hot, you're hot. So I am a little sad all around. I'm sad that Ozzy's gone.
[00:20:15] I'm sad that my heroes seem to be disappearing on a weekly basis.
[00:20:20] I'm getting older and it's okay.
[00:20:24] I'm also sad that I'm not cool. I like to be cool.
[00:20:30] Had long hair most of my whole life.
[00:20:34] You know, do my best to.
[00:20:40] To be a rock and roller and.
[00:20:43] And just, you know, live a hip, cool life, man. I just, I. I don't know, you know, eat healthy and my houses look cool, things like that.
[00:20:54] And real estate is not cool right now. It is so dead, dead, dead, dead again. I'm gonna tell you, this is still statistically the slowest real estate sales market basically ever.
[00:21:11] And until you're ready to realize that and admit that and come to terms with that, it's not going to get better. The biggest problem we have right now is not interest rates, my friend.
[00:21:23] The biggest problem we have right now is perception.
[00:21:30] The Jones is next door are not ready to admit and may never admit that their house is not worth what they think it's worth.
[00:21:43] The Joneses next door think they're a genius.
[00:21:47] And they will sit there being oblivious to the truth that their property is not cool.
[00:21:56] Your real estate value is not what you think it is.
[00:22:00] And good for us. Lucky for us, it hasn't crashed and it's not going to. This is as bad as it's going to get and as bad as it's going to get. What is this bad? What is bad? Bad means that nobody's buying anything that's bad.
[00:22:18] And. And we are going to lose some folks. We're going to lose a lot of real estate. We've already lost a lot of real estate agents and mortgage lenders and mortgage companies are just going out of business left and right because it's not cool out there right now. It's not cool.
[00:22:32] We're not hot.
[00:22:36] Luckily, I'm big enough and strong enough that we're going to survive.
[00:22:41] Not to mention, rents are doing just fine.
[00:22:46] So that's another good thing.
[00:22:49] You know, the bottom is not falling out like 2008.
[00:22:54] The worst it's going to get is right here and right now. And what that translates to is no sales.
[00:23:01] It's very difficult for a new family right now trying to raise that family, trying to have kids. And get a bigger house. Go from a three bedroom to a four bedroom. That's hard to do right now. So hard to do because nobody's selling.
[00:23:15] That's going to change.
[00:23:21] We're going to lose a lot of folks in real estate again. No conferences scheduled right now because it's just not cool.
[00:23:30] But it's going to come back around again. This is not a fad.
[00:23:37] People have to have a home.
[00:23:40] People have to have a roof over their head. People for the from now until the end of time, even if they're using crypto to buy milk at Walmart, even if they're buying crypto on Instacart to have milk delivered to their house, they will still go on vacation forever and ever and ever. And say your prayers and take your vitamins, Hulkamaniacs.
[00:24:07] We will be cool again.
[00:24:14] Right now we're taking our punches and that's okay. I'm cool with it. I'm finding deals.
[00:24:22] You kind of have to be a cash buyer right now. You don't have to, but the, the best deals out there are for cash buyers. But there's deals. You got to spend more time making offers. You got to find the right seller. If you're looking to buy right now. You got to find that person who's willing to give up their good interest rate or the fact that they're maybe losing some money on the sale of their property. If they bought it in 2022, there's a six month window of suck.
[00:24:53] And it's like March of 2022 until whatever six months from March is.
[00:25:01] What is that? October, January, February, September. Got it. Three, six, nine.
[00:25:07] Six plus three is nine. November.
[00:25:12] No, did I say November?
[00:25:14] Crap. September. September to March through September of 2022. Those are the people that are hurting right now. And most of them will just hold on whether they're primary homeowners or investors or otherwise.
[00:25:27] Most of those folks are just going to hold onto it because rents are doing fine.
[00:25:32] And again, very small percentage of real estate is rental real estate. Most, you know, residential single family home people are living in them and they're making enough money at their job to pay their mortgage. Even if their interest rate's high and if they tried to make it move into a bigger house right now, it's just not worth it. It's not a cool market. It's not cool.
[00:25:55] Cool. It is cool, temperature wise.
[00:25:58] When I say cool, I mean, you know, popular, hip, happening that we are not.
[00:26:10] And until people realize it, we won't become hip again.
[00:26:13] And I think what it's going to take for people to realize it is for interest rates to go down and be all over the news and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Because people are sheep.
[00:26:23] In the meantime, I'm taking my sweet time making offer after offer. I offered on the same house nine times.
[00:26:30] That house is still for sale. Something tells me it's coming back to me again.
[00:26:35] Something tells me at a certain point that seller is going to be like, okay, let's make a deal.
[00:26:40] Because nobody's buying anything.
[00:26:42] And if you've got yourself in a situation to make a deal right now, be persistent, take your time, find the right seller. The seller is more important than the property right now.
[00:26:54] And we're just not happening. We're not cool, we're not hip. Real estate's not cool. Crypto's all the rage.
[00:27:01] You go to Thanksgiving dinner this year and your uncle's going to be talking to you about crypto. And you're going to say, well, I like rental real estate. And he's going to say, are you crazy? The roof's going to fall in.
[00:27:14] And here I am just chugging away. And guess what? My rents are doing just fine.
[00:27:19] So to me, you need to get out there and do it now before it becomes cool again. Before all those sheep start parking their car next to you.
[00:27:31] Anyway, it's a sad week in the world of rock and roll.
[00:27:37] God bless you, the Prince of Darkness.
[00:27:39] Ozzy, the greatest heavy metal hard rock rock star of all time. His band Black Sabbath, invented heavy metal.
[00:27:48] Did it best. They were the first to the space, much like we were to short term rental. Avery was the very first short term rental influencer.
[00:27:58] Nobody had ever even heard of it before.
[00:28:02] People have been doing it for a million years.
[00:28:04] Just had a different name, you know, or wasn't popular. Wasn't cool.
[00:28:12] Anyway, I love you. I'll be back in my office sooner than later, but I just wanted to talk about lots of stuff.
[00:28:18] Pay my respects to Ozzy the Hulkster.
[00:28:23] Mostly Ozzy, man, I mean, just. Yeah, no, no disrespect to the Hulk, but man, Ozzy's a tough one.
[00:28:31] And, you know, we're not cool. And that's okay. We will. We will rise above it. We will prevail.
[00:28:37] We'll be. We'll be just fine. I don't have a quote for you this week, but I am reading a very good book, so I'll give you a book before we go the goal.
[00:28:48] It's a huge book.
[00:28:50] Six million copies sold by Mr. Goldrat. I can't pronounce his first name. I do apologize for that.
[00:28:59] Gold rat.
[00:29:02] Wonderful book. It's outdated, it's older, but I enjoy. I'm almost done with it. Enjoying it very much. I got a couple chapters left. So Bob's your uncle, the long hair millionaire.
[00:29:15] Asking you to not overthink it.
[00:29:24] Ra.
