[00:00:02] This is short term rental management, the show that is all about short term rental property management with your host, yours truly, Luke Carl.
[00:00:15] It is short term rental management, and I love you. It's a Tuesday morning if you're listening in real time, and it is a great day for a wonderful day. I'm in my new office, mic quality, not quite where I want it to be yet, but I'm getting closer. Cool news is I got more space, man, and I got a better background. That's cool. So got my little library going here. This is actually Avery's old office. If anybody's super familiar with Avery's podcast, you'll remember maybe the early days of her podcast with this background. So I'm moving on up.
[00:00:52] But anyway, man, it's great to be here. Short term rental management. Today we're going to talk about the economy and the market and my thoughts on where we're going with this thing on short term rental management.
[00:01:07] This episode is brought to you by short term shop plus.
[00:01:12] Are you looking for someone to help you analyze a deal?
[00:01:16] Do you want instant access to lectures on management and short term rental success?
[00:01:22] Join short term shop plus for all of your vacation rental needs.
[00:01:28] STS plus is open to the public and offered for the first time at a tremendous value.
[00:01:34] Also included is world famous management Monday, a weekly live session with everything you need to know about setting up your property and learning how to manage from a distance.
[00:01:46] Join
[email protected].
[00:01:49] that's sdsplus.com. so, you know, man, it's. It's funny because I started buying in like, 2012, something like that. 2013, a little over ten years ago now. And, uh, that my first property was a.
[00:02:05] A live in flip, if you will. Or maybe you could call it a house hack. But I lived in it and flipped it, and then I put a tenant in it, and then I ended up selling it years later. I even. I did a heLoC on it because it was my primary residence and then use that money to buy a short term, which. That's another long story. I don't necessarily recommend that you do that, but it works out occasionally, you know, worked out for me.
[00:02:32] And that was about 2012, maybe 13 when I bought that house. I feel like it was maybe 13 because I remember that was a really cool number, you know, lucky 13.
[00:02:46] Anyway, so back then, when I first started buying, we were coming out of the great recession. Zero eight was, you know, just barely in the rearview mirror. And I was new and I was hungry, and I was shot out of a cannon. And zero eight, you know, you still hear all these things about it today. Let's say you're getting into real estate investing for the first time. Let me think about this as almost like a baseball career or a football career or maybe, you know, any kind of career where you're just learning the history of what you're doing here, you know, and that is kind of how I look at it. Like, what was this like for my forefathers? What was it like, you know, when I, before I got involved. And, and the reason I bring it up is because we are seeing a major shift again. We're seeing a major shift again, and it's going to be a whole new crop of new folks, you know, because back when I first started, everybody was telling me, you can't do this anymore. You can't do this anymore, you can't do this anymore. And I think that was a hangover. Now, looking back on it in hindsight, I think that was a hangover from zero eight because I think a lot of people were having some good success in real estate and, like, you know, 0506. And then things started to get a little weird. No, seven, there was a lot of building going on in 0504.
[00:04:06] And you could tell by just going, looking at build dates in vacation markets or even in regular metro markets, long term rentals, any kind of rentals. But if you go look at, like the. Take the smokies, for instance, there are a lot of builds from, like, zero two to zero five. And then things started to get weird. And then everybody just pulled out in late zero seven, 2008. And again, this is in hindsight perspective, I was not around at the time. Matter of fact, I was living in New York City back in the great depression. I was in the bar industry.
[00:04:40] And when I owned the bar, everybody said, oh, man, nobody's going to go to bars anymore because they're, everybody's losing their job and nobody's going to have any money. Well, guess what? My bar had two dollar beers. It was cheap beer and it was busier than ever.
[00:04:56] We could not keep. We couldn't. We didn't have enough room for all these people because we were selling cheap beer and nobody had any jobs and they were not working. They were going to the bar, they were having fun.
[00:05:06] And the same thing kind of happened with COVID along that, in that regard where people stopped working in the office, and then all of a sudden, they got this freedom, they got this taste of freedom. And hell, a lot of places were telling us not to go to work.
[00:05:21] You know, so it was a weird vibe where everybody just went on vacation, right? A little bit different than zero eight, of course, but not really. You know, in Covid, the money was thriving. Everybody had plenty of dough in 2020, but they were, you know, they were spending it on vacations and things like that. So there are a lot of similarities here. I do think that in 20 years we're going to have people say, oh, yeah, Luke, how did you make so much money? Where did you get all your money? Well, I bought real estate pre Covid.
[00:05:56] Now can we make money post Covid? Hell yeah.
[00:06:01] I think in that regard is opposite of zero eight. In zero eight, if you said I bought real estate pre zero eight, then it was a little bit rough for a while.
[00:06:12] But in 1011 1213, that's when it was like the bottom had fallen out and things were starting to come around, especially in metro markets where people were moving and people were buying houses and things were thriving. The interest rates had gone down and stuff like that, right? So that's when I got in.
[00:06:36] I got in at 13. And by that point, everybody had already started saying, you can't find a deal. You can't make money in real estate, you can't do this, you can't do this. And I think half of that was people that were hungover from buying real estate previous to zero eight and the glory days back then and saying, oh, man, I could buy real estate and make a bunch of money. And then zero eight happened and it went crazy and everybody lost a bunch of money. I think half, I think half of it is that perspective. And the other half was the people that did just straight up lost their ass, you know?
[00:07:13] And they were still, they were, I hate to say it, they were Butthurtley, you can't make money in real estate. And then it's also a weird combination of a whole new crop coming in. Because when a major event like that happens, you're creating opportunity, you're creating changes in the market, or they were created out of force or whatever. Nobody did this on purpose, right? So I think in 2011, 2012, you started seeing these new kids come out of the woodwork and they were hungry and they wanted to buy these cheap deals.
[00:07:50] And it was like a whole new crop of young, hungry people that wanted to make a difference in their lives and change their lives through real estate.
[00:08:04] And they were competing against all these butthurt people. So the people that came in with this new perspective, this newfound glory, if you will, this California gold rush of real estate. In 2011, 2012, one of which was me.
[00:08:22] And I was competing with all these people telling me, you couldn't do this anymore because they were butthurt.
[00:08:29] And guess what? I didn't listen. I went in and cleaned house. I bought everything I could get my damn hands on. I did. I was hungry. I was young.
[00:08:39] I didn't want anything to do with working for the Mandev. And I was ready to rock. And I went in and I found every opportunity that I could to get my next deal.
[00:08:52] Now, fast forward to today. I do want to mention, guys, we are living in something similar. It's complete opposite in many regards, but in a lot of aspects here, it is similar in that you've got a lot of people that bought pre Covid that are now butt hurt.
[00:09:13] And I'm sorry if your kids are listening, be unprofessional with this language here, but.
[00:09:19] And they're sitting around saying, you can't find a deal. You can't find a deal. You can't find a deal. Well, guess what? They're washed up. They're tired.
[00:09:28] They're probably not as enthused as they once were when the sky was raining money. And like all aspects of life, literally, you know, and there's an opportunity now for somebody who is young and hungry to go out there and find some deals. People are not buying houses. And really, it's been going on for almost two years now since the interest rates skyrocketed overnight, literally.
[00:09:57] And your competition is getting less and less and less every day. And now we're coming into slow season. You know, we might even already be here in the fall or in the winter. And then you're going to find even more people that bought because they thought they were insulated and they're going to start selling. There's going to be more sellers. I'm telling you, it's going to happen. There's going to be a fantastic buyer's market happening. And not only will there be a fantastic buyer's market, but we are losing a lot of the competition.
[00:10:33] The butthurded will not thrive. They are going to give up and move on to whatever else the been there, done thats are going to give up and move on to whatever else. Thats how I was able to crush it in 2012, 2013 because the been there, done. Thats were bored. They were over it.
[00:10:56] Maybe they were builders and they got crushed because they were building too much and then the economy tanked.
[00:11:03] But I was young and I was hungry and I didn't know any better.
[00:11:07] To these guys, to the been there. Done that. In 2013, when I started buying, I was buying too high because things were different in 050304, you know, and then in zero eight and zero nine, you couldn't get a loan. You could not get a loan.
[00:11:27] The banks were not lending money in 080-9010 all right. Is 00:10 a real 2010? You get the idea.
[00:11:39] This episode is brought to you by the premier short term rental Facebook group. Short term rental long term will we have nearly 50,000 members. This is the biggest independently owned and operated SCR Facebook group, and it has been curated by yours truly. Cash flow car. Join us on Facebook. Search the groups for short term rental long term wealth.
[00:12:03] That's short term rental, long term wealth on Facebook.
[00:12:08] Now we can get loans. They're just a little pricey, a little more pricey. And I think that that is pushing out the competition.
[00:12:18] Okay? This is an excellent opportunity for somebody young and hungry and fresh, with new perspective on the entire market in general, to come in and crush it.
[00:12:31] If you're from my generation of investor that started with bigger pockets, episode number 50, all those dudes are washed up now.
[00:12:41] They've moved on. They've got syndications. They've. They've either built this giant career and they don't want anything to do with your stupid single family house, or they're out of the business. Most likely, they're out of the business, right? They bought three or four houses. They realized, oh, man, rental real estate is harder than I thought it was going to be. And that's it. That's the end of it. They're done. They go back to work like a regular person. And I don't say that. I can't say that I blame them.
[00:13:06] Matter of fact, your best bet is to stay at your job. I say that all the time.
[00:13:15] And back to the travelers.
[00:13:18] That's another point I want to make. You know, over the past few years, everybody's been like, amenitized, amenitize, amenitize, amenitize. You need a swimming pool and a petting zoo. I always make the petting zoo joke, but now it's starting to become reality. Did you spend too much money putting in all this crazy stuff in your house?
[00:13:37] Did you put in the helicopter pad? I'm joking, obviously, but did you put in 90 different coffee machines and a bidet? You know, did you put in a $15,000 mural?
[00:13:53] Because in this. In this economy where people are hurting, my friends, people are hurting. They want a less expensive vacation. And if you spend all that money, which we've been preaching this for years, don't spend all that money. Cute, clean, comfortable is what people want, then you will survive.
[00:14:10] And if you decided to go out and buy all that crazy extra stuff, you can survive. If you don't have to have the rents to accommodate for all that money you spend on amenities.
[00:14:22] If you're wealthy enough that that stuff came out of your pocket, that's cool, you can come in and crush a dude like me. But if you were doing that based on trying to increase the rents like a crapshoot with all these amenities, I'm sorry, but my cheap little $120 a night one bedroom is going to crush it.
[00:14:40] And you're trying to, you know, if you got these big, you know, crazy giant amenity over amenitized houses becomes a little more difficult to be affordable on your rents again, creating opportunity for an excellent time to get in.
[00:15:02] The competition is disappearing by the day.
[00:15:08] It is.
[00:15:10] And if you want to make a difference in your life and your family's future, this is the time to be looking. I'm telling you, I think from between now, I think right, literally today is when this thing is starting to look good for investors. And between now and next June or July is the sweet spot because then all this new crop, by that, by this time next year, there'll be a whole new crop of brand new people that never heard of real estate investing coming out of nowhere because it started to be good again.
[00:15:46] 18 months tops before that happens.
[00:15:50] And then we're going to have a bunch of new Yahoo kids coming in thinking they know everything and swinging for the fences. And guess what? They're going to get their market share because they're hungry. They're going to get it and they deserve it.
[00:16:02] And the guys have been doing this for a while, myself included. We're going to get left behind.
[00:16:09] Got to stay hungry at all times. Got to stay hungry.
[00:16:13] Perfect example, my friends grocery store. You go to the grocery store right now and it is expensive. Dude, what is going on? I go up to that cashier and I'm like, you're kidding me.
[00:16:27] It's like $12 for a roll of paper towels these days. You know what I mean? It's insanity what's going on out there. But guess what? There's a whole brand new crop of young folks that are coming in right now, getting away from their parents, having babies, going to work, and that's going to be normal to them.
[00:16:46] When Avery and I first started the short term shop, we had to teach people how to raise their hand on Zoom. We had to teach people how to get on Zoom, how to make their audio work, and now everybody's showing up to Zoom meetings with a headset and a microphone. It's a different world.
[00:17:08] All right, so these young kids coming in, man, it's your time to shine. It is. It's your turn to shine. I want. I want you. If you're a young kid, hot shot, ready to rock, ready to take over the world, it's your turn.
[00:17:20] My generation is. It's got it. We're. I'm passing the torch to you. I want to teach you because I do still love buying houses, but it doesn't fire me up as much as it used to, and that's my point. My generation of investor is disappearing, and you are going to take that torch and run with it. Take that baton and run with it. All right? Let me teach you how to do that. Please come to
[email protected]. dot I want to teach you because that's where I find my joy now, teaching people everything I know. I used to find my joy with finding and closing the deals, and I still do. I have two under contract right now, but it's not like it used to be, man. My focus is on my kids, watching every minute with my kids, and I want to be able to pass that on all the. All the knowledge and the 20,000 hours I put in.
[00:18:23] Come learn from me. Listen to my podcast. Leave my podcast, a five star review. Please sign up for sdsplus.com. let me teach you. But anyway, that's not my point. I didn't want to sales pitch sds plus, but I did it anyway. But my point is, the cream of the crop is rising to the top, and there is a new crop of investors out there, and it's your time to shine, man. Anybody telling you that it's too late, you've been left behind, you can't find a deal, shove it right up their rear end.
[00:18:58] They're wrong. They were saying that same crap to me 1112 years ago. And look at me go. Look at me now.
[00:19:07] I'm a worldwide Instagram influence sensation, which, by the way, please do follow me on Instagram. I do some pretty funny jokes on there, if I do say so myself. It's Luke Cashflow Carl on Instagram. Come join me over there. But anyway, enough with the plugs. It's your time to shine. Young, hungry, ready to rock. The economy has changed.
[00:19:31] The old school dudes are going away by the minute. Your competition is getting less and less by the day.
[00:19:42] It's your time to shine. Get out there, grab the bull by the horns, close some damn deals, and make a difference in your future. Luke Karl, short term rental management. Don't overthink it.
